It's that time of year again. Middle aged men will sit around a couple of desks to poke, prod, and analyze kids who have just gotten out of college. At the same time, millions and millions of people will either eat or drink themselves into euphoria or disappointment. This event is the NFL Draft and it starts Thursday night with round one.
The NFL Draft is always one of my favorite events on the sports calendar because it's so unique. Before the format was changed, the first three rounds were on Saturday and it kicked off at 11 am. However, Roger Goodell, like many other good things in the NFL, ruined it by trying to get more exposure in prime time. The draft is the ultimate reality show with many storylines revolving around it. The draft always has something to talk about.
So, what am I looking towards this year? Funny you should ask....
1) What will the Minnesota Vikings do at pick number 12?
As of writing this, I have no idea what the Vikings will do when it comes to their draft strategy. However there are many holes for the Vikings to fill.
The Vikings will need a quarterback. Brett Favre is not coming through that door, and there is no current heir to that throne on the roster. I'm just not sold on Joe Webb.
They need help along the offensive line. Steve Hutchinson is getting old, and the rest of the line is completely ineffective.
The Vikings need help along the defensive line as well. Ray Edwards will be leaving for free agency and Pat Williams will not be back to form the Williams Wall once again. Don't forget that the injunction that has allowed Pat and Kevin Williams to play after a 2008 drug test has been lifted. This means that Kevin Williams may not be in the mix for the first four games of the 2011 season. That would leave one returning starter along the defensive line in Jared Allen.
The Viking secondary needs to be reworked. Antoine Winfield is solid, but he might be starting to lose a step here or there. Cedric Griffin is coming off of two ACL tears to separate knees. Chris Cook seems to be at best an average player and Madieu Williams, Tyrell Johnson, and Hussein Abdullah are awful at the safety position.
And finally, the Vikings could need a pass catcher at tight end or wide receiver. Sidney Rice could be an unrestricted free agent in the new collective bargaining agreement, leaving the Vikings without a #1 wide receiver. Visthante Shiancoe also lost a step during last year's trainwreck of a season.
Then there are smaller needs such as a replacement for Ben Leber at outside linebacker. So, that's about it. No big deal...
So what will the Vikings do? Sources are starting to say that the Vikings will trade down from #12 to get picks later in the draft. Remember, the Vikings do not have a third round pick after Coronel Klink sent Randy Moss packing. The Vikings could try and get that pick back and in the process take Washington quarterback Jake Locker.
Locker was supposed to be the #1 overall pick last year had he come out for the draft, but Locker elected to stay in school. After a season in which he did not improve his questionable accuracy in the pocket, his stock fell drastically and is now considered the third or fourth best quarterback in the class.
They could also wait on the quarterback and take a defensive back such as Nebraska's Prince Amukamara. Amukamara is considered the second best corner in the draft behind LSU's Patrick Peterson, but Amukamara holds his own value and is considered to be a potential shutdown corner.
They could also go tackle to help the "aging" Bryant McKinnie (No, he just sucks.) and the slumping Phil Loadholt. USC's Tyron Smith is considered to be tied for the top pick with Boston College's Anthony Constanzo. Constanzo projects to be the better left tackle, but Smith could probably excel at both positions.
Personally, I would like to see the Vikings trade back in the draft and get more picks. If you didn't notice, they have a lot of holes. I do like Jake Locker somewhat and wouldn't mind to see what new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave can do with him. The accuracy thing is a concern, but when you think about it, all quarterbacks have their question marks.
Sam Bradford might not have been durable...he's ok. Matt Ryan didn't have the arm strength...he's pretty decent. Joe Flacco didn't have the prototypical build and was coming from a small school...three playoff appearances later, I don't here those concerns. So Locker wouldn't be a bad pick IF they trade down. Locker at 12 would be way too desperate...although that's where the Vikings are at right now.
It'll be interesting to see if a talent such as Amukamara or Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones falls to 12, will the Vikings take them? It's also been rumored that Auburn DT Nick Fairley, who was supposed to be the #1 pick this year would fall to them as well.
2) Who will be the #1 pick in the draft?
The Carolina Panthers have been on the clock, and towards the end of the season, it appeared that they were primed to take Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck with the top pick. Then Luck decided to stay in school...and all hell broke loose.
With Luck returning to school, there is no super prospect in the draft. That means that it's been a revolving door as to who will be the #1 pick. Recently, teams have opted to take a quarterback over the best available player if it's a position of need. St. Louis did that least season when they passed up Ndamukong Suh for Sam Bradford. The Panthers are in a similar situation.
Jimmy Claussen just isn't very good, but at the same time, he has zero weapons at his disposal with Steve Smith being a crybaby and a banged up running game for most of the 2010 season. However, the new Panthers brain trust, lead by new head coach Ron Rivera, may decide to kick off his new regime with a new quarterback. (Most coaches in that situation will get their own guy in there.)
So that leaves three possible players for the #1 pick. The first is Auburn QB Cam Newton. Newton is the most physically gifted player in the draft, but he comes with a ton of question marks. First, can he turn into a passer that doesn't stare down his receiver (Think Vince Young coming out of Texas). Second, what's up with his character issues? Remember, Newton was involved in the pay-for-play scandal involving his father, and then disobeying orders from Gene Chizik in the national championship game by calling a QB sneak rather than taking a knee. The Panthers love Newton, but will they pull the trigger?
The Panthers could also take Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert is considered by many to be the top quarterback in the draft. I'm confused as to why, but the question with Gabbert is can he run a pro style offense after playing in Mizzou's spread offense system. Gabbert also has several questions about his accuracy.
Then there is Alabama DT Marcell Darius. The Panthers will go to a 3-4 scheme next year, and the key to the 3-4 is a big nose tackle that takes up space. Dareus fits that description with his 305 pound frame. The Panthers have a real dearth of talent along the offensive line, and Rivera is considered to be a defensive coach.
Personally, I think the Panthers may roll the dice and take Cam Newton. In a perfect world, the Panthers may want to trade down and take a quarterback, but with the lockout preventing any personnel moves in the draft, that may prove to be very difficult. Oh did I mention the lockout...
3) How will the current situation of the NFL affect the draft.
On Monday, US District Judge Susan Richard Nelson granted an injunction by the NFL Players against the NFL owners lockout. The players were told by their "union", which really isn't a "union" anymore to show up to work. When the players got to work, they were turned away by guys who get off on watching Roadhouse. Of course, Goodell, aka Harvey Dent (for you Batman fans), said that the players were being greeted so courteously that the entire Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns teams were escorted away from the facility by such Patrick Swayze wanna-bes. Hmm...
Well, the bottom line is that the lockout is over, but there is no word as to when free agency, trades, and other sort of player movement will begin. As of the time of this writing, no player movement will happen at the draft, so guys like Donovan McNabb and Kevin Kolb will not be moved, or have new places of employment on Thursday night. That will make things interesting.
This means a team wanting Kolb's services, which would have to happen in a trade, would have to roll the dice that they can get him by using their 2012 draft picks. However, if the teams think they have no chance, we may see some very aggressive moves, especially for teams that need a quarterback.
(NOTE: As of Tuesday afternoon, such aggressive moves were already swirling around as the Arizona Cardinals, instead of taking Blaine Gabbert at pick #5, were thinking of trading out of the spot. Potential suitors are the Houston Texans, who want to try and grab Patrick Peterson, or the St. Louis Rams, who want to take Alabama WR Julio Jones.)
4) Mel Kiper vs. Todd McShay
You know, NFL Network, you do a pretty good job handling the NFL Draft. You have your cute little "Path to the Draft" show, and can spend all your time talking about it. And I actually think that Mike Mayock is really good at his analysis. However, you don't have what ESPN has: A steel cage deathmatch.
It's very rare that I give ESPN some praise, but Kiper vs. McShay is better than any WWE storyline going on right now. It's said that the two actually respect each other, but when they're in the same room on national television, it's incredibly entertaining.
In the red corner, Kiper has 27 years of analyzing the draft for ESPN. He hails from Baltimore, Maryland and is about 6-3 with his hair. The hair is just some of the substance that leads to his awesomeness, but the thing is, he obviously knows more than Todd McShay.
In the blue corner, McShay is a former worker for Stats Inc. and his Wikipedia page is significantly smaller than Kiper's. Weird...
There will be some classic "I want to kick your ass" moments during the draft and if you'd like a preview, look no further than one of the recent conversations they had about the draft...
McShay: [After Kiper said that he would take Georgia WR A.J. Green #1 if he ran the Carolina Panthers]: So you would take a wide receiver #1 overall? That's what the Detroit Lions do, that's worked out well for them.
Kiper: Yeah, his name is Calvin Johnson. You know who the Raiders took before him? JaMarcus Russell. The Raiders did it again with Larry Fitzgerald. [Fitzgerald] went 3 to Arizona right after Robert Gallery.
Oh yes, I can't wait...
5) The Oakland Raiders Pick
Clearly the most entertaining of the draft. However, we sadly have to wait until the second round because the Raiders traded their first rounder to New England in the Richard Seymour deal. But it should be worth the wait.
The Raiders picked LB Rolando McClain last year and it was a solid pick, but other years have been disasters. One of my favorite NFL Draft memories was watching the Raiders take Darrius Heyward-Bey and having the whole house scream "WHAT THE HELL???" in unison.
6) Drunken NFL Draft Chronicles
In 2007, a new concept was brought forth by one of my commrades at UWRF. It was called the Drunken NFL Draft Chronicles. The concept is quite simple. Slam a couple of 40 oz. products, and then write what you think of the draft.
The first one was actually published in the Student Voice on the UWRF campus. After I xeroxed the idea from my colleague, I tried to publish more, but the vulgarity that ensued shot that idea down.
The good news is that this year the drunken draft chronicles will be running LIVE on Twitter. If you don't have an account you can still follow my tweets @crishad. Otherwise, you can catch the transcript right here on my blog Friday morning. This should get interesting.
7) What will the Packers do with their pick?
Well, I have no clue. Should they care? Ask any Packer fan what the 2011 season will hold for them.
Aaron Rodgers escaped the Madden Curse, so he's good to go. I mean, really. Now he's going to throw 60 touchdowns...blindfolded. He'll throw one interception all year...after it goes through Jordy Nelson's chest and impales a safety...hopefully Tyrell Johnson.
They'll go 16-0 and win all their games by 20-30 points. It shall be a flawless season for the Packers which makes their draft pick obsolete, although I'm sure a lot of people's first thought when the Packers won the Super Bowl was that they have the 32nd pick in the draft. I mean, that made me feel better...
But they'll be looking to upgrade their pass rush and offensive line. Rodgers still got hit a lot last year and the line is an aging unit. UCLA LB Akeem Ayers may be a solution for the pass rush, and somebody on the line could do wonders to keep Rodgers from sustaining another concussion.
Don't sleep on the Packers taking a running back either. Ryan Grant is coming off a major injury and James Starks has been injury prone. A guy like Mark Ingram could be the pick at 32 to give the Packers a workhorse back (although Ingram has been questioned about a possibly arthritic knee.
Just remember folks, no matter what..."It's the most wonderful time...of the year!" Our football teams get presents...some are good...
[rustling paper] "Oh what is this? AN ADRIAN PETERSON???"
Some not so much...
"C'mon...c'mon...it's...a...Chris Cook? Why didn't you just give me underwear?"
