The Minnesota Twins have been snakebitten by elbow injuries in the past couple of seasons. I'm not sure why they can't detect an elbow injury when they see one, but they are as helpless as yours truly looking for a pallet of shelving at Menards.
First, Francisco Liriano hurt his elbow in 2006. Liriano was a fireballing left hander who posted a 12-3 record and a ERA around 2 in his rookie season. That dream season quickly came to a crashing halt when he felt pain in his elbow. The Twins shut Liriano for a couple of weeks and gave him an MRI. The MRI showed no structural damage, so Liriano tried to rest the elbow and pitch a couple weeks later. Liriano could only get to the second out of the 2nd inning in that game and he was done for the year. The Twins thought that Liriano could heal the ligament via rehab. They were wrong and Liriano had to get Tommy John surgery later that year and wound up missing 18 months.
In 2008, Pat Neshek felt a pop in his elbow while pitching against the Chicago White Sox. Neshek tore his UCL and the Twins, again, thought that Neshek would be able to rehab the injury and return in time for Opening Day in 2009. Well, that didn't work out either and Neshek went under the knife for Tommy John in November 2008. Neshek will make his return to the major leagues at some point this season.
Unfortunatly, there is a new chapter in the Twins futility to recognize elbow injuries. Joe Nathan pitched with bone spurs in his elbow towards the end of the 2009 season. Nathan had offseason surgery to get the spurs removed, and was looking very forward to helping the Twins win their 5th AL Central championship in the last 10 years. Then Nathan pitched in a spring training game against the Red Sox and found out he had a torn UCL in his elbow. Nathan thought he might be able to throw through the injury, but that was nonsense. Hello Mr. Tommy John!
So after strike three for the Twins medical staff, the Twins are faced with a serious question. Who will close games for the Twins? Twins Territory, which is already on edge with the Joe Mauer contract situation (although good news may be near), is now wondering which white-knuckle inducing reliever will attempt to slam the door on opposing teams in close games. However, maybe this whole thing is overblown.
Take this into consideration. According to baseball prospectus, Joe Nathan has 246 saves since he joined the Twins. Of those 246, 13 of those came when Nathan had to get more than three outs. So, technically the Twins will be looking for a ninth inning specialist. Most people think that a closer needs to be willing to drink lead paint to get a save, but it's a basic concept.
Regardless, the show must go on. The Yankees, Red Sox, and every other team in MLB won't call timeout for the Twins, so who will fill Nathan's shoes?
THE FAVORITE -
Jon Rauch (5-1 1.72 ERA with Twins in 2009)
A lot of people have given the closer job to him already because he has experience. Rauch notched 17 saves with the Nationals in 2008. He's very versatile and doesn't get rattled easily on the mound. That's a trait that you would like to have in your closer.
IN THE MIX -
Pat Neshek (missed 2008 and 2009 due to elbow injury)
This is a guy that a lot of people want to see, but he's also coming off injury. I believe that if the Twins go in house, they need to stick with the decision throughout the season. Teams that have to change their closers mid-season are usually not playoff teams for a reason. Neshek may run out of steam by the end of the season because he hasn't pitched in two seasons, which makes this a risky move.
Matt Guerrier (5-1 2.36 ERA in 2009)
Patrick Ruesse wrote an article on Guerrier in the Star Tribune, and he may have a point that he's in the mold of Eddie Guardado, the former Twins closer. Guerrier has the guts, but I think the Twins like him setting up the 9th inning. Jason Kubel was asked about putting Guerrier in the closer role, and he sounded as if he was uncomfortable with that...it's not that Guerrier is bad, he's just better in the role his in.
DARK HORSE -
Anthony Slama (4-4 2.67 ERA, 29 saves between AA New Britain and AAA Rochester in 2009)
Another Ruesse suggestion, because he has all the answers...but this may be a possibility. Slama has dominated the minor leagues wherever he has pitched. He's 26 and probably begging for a call-up. They might not put him in the closer role right away, but he would be very intriguing.
Jason Frasor (7-3 2.50 ERA, 11 saves for Toronto in 2008)
This would require a trade, but maybe the Twins could dangle Glen Perkins, Alexei Casilla, or maybe even Ben Revere to get him. He has closing experience, and his stats would suggest that he's not terrible. The Twins could go worse here, but they have a strong reluctance in giving away prospects.
John Smoltz (154 career saves in 4 seasons with the Braves)
Smoltz has signed with TBS to be an analyst for their broadcasts, but he never ruled out pitching. Smoltz appears to be done as a starter, but what if he only throws 20-30 pitches a game? He's old, but it may be worth the risk.
Heath Bell (6-4 2.71 ERA, 42 saves with San Diego in 2009)
Maybe the biggest name out of all the dark horse options. He'd require a trade, and he won't come cheap, but if the Twins can land him, it would be huge.
NO CHANCE IN HELL -
Kerry Wood, Francisco Liriano, Clay Condrey, Jesse Crain, Jose Mijares, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins.
The only option that I would consider is Francisco Liriano, and he's been pitching well in a starters role this spring, so why throw Duensing in there? Everyone else would mean complete disasters.
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