2011 MLB Predictions

About a year ago, I started firing off predictions for the upcoming major league baseball season. On The Crishad Experience, I hired the help of Renee Thony to give me a perspective on the Milwaukee Brewer side of things and away we went.

NOTE: To give credit where it's due, Renee BALLED during this episode as she came in with a hellacious case of the flu bug. Very impressive feat for those of you wondering at home.

As we slammed through all of the predictions, everything looked like it was pretty legit. That is until the Baltimore Orioles got off to a terrible start...making my 3rd place AL East prediction for the Orioles not so good.

OK, so at least I didn't have that solid of predictions...but I guessed that Ron Gardenhire would finally win his manager of the year award and he did. (Although I thought it would come after a playoff series win.) So anyways, here is what I'm seeing in the 2011 Major League Baseball season.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
1. Philadelphia Phillies (97-65, 1st NL East in '10, Lost to SF in NLCS)
The Phillies got the apple of everyone's free agent eye in the offseason, Cliff Lee. This gives them a rotation where a former World Series MVP in Cole Hamels is the 4th starter and a rotation that can matchup with anyone.
2. Atlanta Braves (91-71, 2nd NL East, Lost to SF in the NLDS)
Very young and talented team loses their wise manager. However, his protoge of sorts, Fredi Gonzalez takes the helm and could lead them to a NL Wild Card Berth.
3. Florida Marlins (80-82, 3rd NL East)
Hanley Ramirez is accepting a new leadership role with the team, and Mike Stanton will get his first full season in the majors. Factor that in with a solid pitching staff, and the Fish may crash the NL East party.
4. New York Mets (79-83, 4th NL East)
The Mets will get Jason Bay back, but won't have their ace Johan Santana back until July at the earliest. New GM Sandy Alderson will be looking to make a mark on the team, so several players such as Jose Reyes may have new uniforms by season's end.
5. Washington Nationals (69-93, 5th NL East)
Not their time yet, but with Jayson Werth joining the team to persuade guys that Washington is a place to play and the future arrivals of Stephen Strasburg (out in '11 with Tommy John) and Bryce Harper, the future is very bright.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
1. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85, 3rd NL Central)
Awesome offense gets a real pitching staff to help it out. Zack Grienke is a huge addition, but Shawn Marcum could be a game changer to give the Brewers their first division title since 1982.
2. Cincinnati Reds (91-71, 1st NL Central, Lost to PHI in NLDS)
Speaking of pitching, the Reds have a ton of it. Bronson Arroyo will be battling Mono for the first month of the season, but with guys like Travis Wood and Johnny Cueto to go along with their dominant set-up man Aroldis Chapman, the Reds will be in good shape.
3. St. Louis Cardinals (86-76, 2nd NL Central)
The Cardinals are having a nightmarish spring. Albert Pujols didn't sign a long term extension and Adam Wainright went down to Tommy John surgery. Chris Carpenter is still there to give the Cardinals some veteran leadership, but is there enough around Albert Pujols to make them contenders?
4. Chicago Cubs (75-87, 4th NL Central)
Mike Quade takes over for the Cubs, and I really like his attitude. However, there are too many players on the Cubs who might not be good enough for them to end the curse. Carlos "I hit .198, but I can hit bombs" Pena will try and replace Derrick Lee, and Matt Garza should blossom into an ace for the Northsiders.
5. Houston Astros (76-86, 5th NL Central)
The Astros had a changing of the guard last season when Drayton McLane not only put the team up for sale, but also dealt away Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt, who had been the faces of the franchise for the past decade. Out of the ashes comes talent from Chris Johnson and Brett Wallace, but it's not enough to contend yet.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (57-105, 6th NL Central)
Here's an interesting fact. Over the past couple of seasons, no team has spent more in draft picks than the Pirates. It might not show in the win column yet, but Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutcheon, and Jose Tabata are going to be names you'll hear in the next couple of years.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
1. San Francisco Giants (92-70, 1st NL West, Def. Texas in World Series)
Pitching, pitching, pitching. That's how you describe the Giants rotation. Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, and Bumgarner form the most devastating combination West of Philadelphia. Throw in Brian Wilson to end the game, and it will be tough to dethrone the defending champs.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (80-82, 4th NL West)
The Dodgers didn't make too many moves in the offseason, but it may be addition by subtraction. Manny Ramirez is gone, and the Dodgers will be looking for people to step up in his absence. They also need guys like Matt Kemp to rebound from a down year, and Andre Either to regain his MVP form from the first half of last season. All is certain that Don Mattingly, replacing Joe Torre will have this team ready to go.
3. Colorado Rockies (83-79, 3rd NL West)
If Troy Tulowitzki didn't get hurt, this could have been a dangerous team to play in the postseason. The thing that bothers me is consistency. After a blazing start, Ubaldo Jimenez was terrible in the second half. Plus, Tulo didn't get most of his production until September. If the Rox can put together a solid effort for an entire season, they can finish higher. But as of now, I have to be cautious.
4. San Diego Padres (90-72, 2nd NL West)
This was the team who maybe should have gotten in over the Giants last season. If it weren't for a late 11 game losing streak, the Padres might have been the team we're talking about repeating. Alas, not the case. The Padres traded Adrian Gonzalez, and I have to wonder where this team is going to get offense from for their solid pitching staff.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (65-97, 5th NL West)
This team either strikes out or hits bombs. This is something Kurt Gibson is trying to change in the desert. However, there isn't much major league ready talent to help out. Justin Upton will look to rebound after last season, and Daniel Hudson could develop into a stud pitcher. However, the D'Backs will have to be patient as they begin their latest rebuilding project.

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
1. Boston Red Sox (89-73, 3rd AL East)
The Red Sox didn't make the playoffs last year, so what do they do? Get pissed and hit the free agent market while burning the farm system! BOOM! Carl Crawford! BOOM! Adrian Gonzalez. Both should have monster years at Fenway (No pun intended) and the Red Sox pitching staff should be markedly better from a year ago now that Jon Lester and Clay Bucholz are turning into top of the line starters.
2. New York Yankees (95-67, 2nd AL East, Lost to TEX in ALCS)
ESPN can't believe that the Yankees are being called underdogs. Well, I kind of agree. If the Yankees can lean on their lean talent cupboard of Alex Rodriguez, Mark Texieria, and Robinson Cano, I guess they could compete. Their rotation is a bit of a concern, but Ivan Nova will have a big season behind CC Sabbathia and Phil Hughes.
3. Tampa Bay Rays (96-66, 1st AL East, Lost to TEX in ALDS)
The Rays finally conquered the AL East last season only to have a letdown in the playoffs, sound familiar? The Rays then had to let go of all their elite talent....(wow this is eerie almost) Carl Crawford, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and the majority of their bullpen all left Tampa and the rebuilding process begins. There's still talent there with Longoria, Price, and Hellickson, but can the additions of Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon keep them in contention?
4. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77, 4th AL East)
This team could have won the AL Central last season. There's a lot of talent here, but their division is so stacked, they can't break through. I'm personally skeptical about Jose Bautista repeating his 50 bomb campaign, but they have solid young pitching and can be a team that improves over the next couple of seasons. But they play in the AL East...pack a lunch.
5. Baltimore Orioles (66-96, 5th AL East)
In a division like this, somebody has to be a pinata. Hi, Baltimore! Buck Showalter got the O's thinking the right way after his arrival, but then they made moves like they were going to contend. J.J. Hardy, Vlad Guerrero, and Derrek Lee all join the fold, but do they really help anything? Their starting staff is inexperienced, and Brian Roberts is made of glass. We'll see what happens here, especially with a talented outfield of Nick Markakis and Adam Jones, but I will not make the same mistake I made last year.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
1. Minnesota Twins (94-68, 1st AL Central, Lost to NYY in ALDS)
When it comes to October, the Twins suck. When it comes to the AL Central, they own your favorite AL Central team. The Twins lost several players over the offseason, but still figure to be in the mix for their 7th AL Central title in 10 years. Many players on the offense had down years and could rebound, and the Twins have rebuilt their pen before, can they do it again? I think so.
2. Chicago White Sox (88-74, 2nd AL Central)
The White Sox continue to look for ways to defeat the Minnesota Twins and get to the Central (the only time they did that, they won the World Series. Hmm...) They went out and added Adam Dunn to a lineup that could already rake, and the hope is that he'll replace the loss of Jim Thome. The Sox also rebuilt their bullpen, getting rid of Bobby Jenks and adding Jesse Crain. They'll be in the mix to dethrone the Twins.
3. Detroit Tigers (81-81, 3rd AL Central)
Young team had it's struggles last season, especially when Magglio Ordonez went down. Again, too many question marks with this team. Will Miguel Cabrera stay sober? Can Victor Martinez hit for power at spacious Comerica? Will the young rotation continue to develop? All of these will impact what the Tigers can do.
4. Cleveland Indians (69-93, 4th AL Central)
There's not much hope in Cleveland sports...ever. Shin Soo-Choo may be their best player and that's saying something. The rotation has no signs of life, and Grady Sizemore may never be the same player again. This team is on the way down.
5. Kansas City Royals (67-95, 5th AL Central)
In 2001, the Twins were in a similar situation. They had a bunch of prospects playing in the majors and didn't perform well for the past...decade. They came up with an ad campaign called "Get To Know Em" and we all see the state of the Twins now. Fast forward to the 2011 Royals. They haven't arrived yet, but pieces are coming. In Baseball America's top 100 prospects, five of them are in the Royals system. Guys like Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer should be up by the end of the year, and the Royals even have pitching prospects like Mike Montgomery. Come 2013, the Royals may be the Twins biggest rival.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
1. Texas Rangers (90-72, 1st AL West, Lost in World Series to SF)
Yeah, they lost Cliff Lee, but is there anyone in the division that can challenge them? I'm skeptical about Adrian Beltre after one AL West team gave him a massive contract and he did nothing for them, but their pitching is still very good even without Cliff Lee. I feel that Ron Washington is in the same mold as Ron Gardenhire as he can take a team without elite talent and get them to overachieve. Perfect guy for the job.
2. Oakland Athletics (81-81, 2nd AL West)
More pitching by the Bay. Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill leads a very good pitching staff, but the offense has to keep up. Too many times last year the A's struggled to score runs, and that might be the case again this season, but their pitching will lead them to pick up some wins.
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (80-82, 3rd AL West)
Mike Soscia is one of the best managers in baseball, but he doesn't have the talent he needs to win this weak division. The Angels lost out on Carl Crawford, so they decided to try giving Vernon Wells a spot in center field. All of this is very interesting, because they own one of the best prospects in baseball, Mike Trout. When Trout comes up, he could wind up being the face of the franchise, but as of right now, the Angels are a mediocre team.
4. Seattle Mariners (61-101, 4th AL West)
They have a long way to go to clean up their mess from last season. Felix Hernandez is still there, and he's really good...as is Ichiro, but I can't help but wonder if the Mariners need to do a Houston Astros style cleanup to get back to prominence.

AWARD PICKS
AL MVP - Adrian Gonzalez (1B - BOS)
AL Cy Young - Jon Lester (BOS)
AL Rookie of The Year - Mike Trout (LAA...IF he comes up before June)
AL Comeback Player of The Year - Justin Morneau (1B - MIN)
AL Manager of the Year - Ron Washington (TEX)
AL Wild Card - New York Yankees
NL MVP - Albert Pujols (1B - STL; Contract year, folks)
NL Cy Young - Cliff Lee (PHI)
NL Rookie of The Year - Freddie Freeman (ATL)
NL Comeback Player of the Year - Wow, dug myself a ditch here...
NL Manager of the Year - Ron Roenicke (MIL)
NL Wild Card - Cincinnati Reds

PLAYOFF PICKS
ALDS Series 1: New York Yankees d. Minnesota Twins in three games
ALDS Series 2: Boston Red Sox d. Texas Rangers in four games
NLDS Series 1: San Francisco Giants d. Milwaukee Brewers in four games
NLDS Series 2: Philadelphia Phillies d. Cincinnati Reds in four games

ALCS: Red Sox d. Yankees in five games
NLCS: Phillies d. Giants in seven games

World Series: Philadelphia Phillies over Boston Red Sox in six games...now go to Vegas!