Tuesday, October 5, 2010

MLB Playoff Picks and 2010 Award Winners

The regular season is over, and if you're like me, you kind of start to lose track of baseball in September. Either your team is good enough to know you're in the playoffs or your team is so bad, you're out of contention by the time September rolls around. There are only a select few that have the chase that the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres had this season.

However, that's why October is so great. The gloves are off. You have teams that haven't been there in a while, like the Cincinnati Reds, who hadn't won the division since 1996.

An aging manager trying to get one more World Series under his resume before he rides into the sunset, like Atlanta Braves manager Bobby Cox.

And the David vs. Goliath matchups that exist like the Yankees taking on the Twins (the Twins have a 100 million dollar payroll, but with the Yankees dominance in recent years, it only feels like the Yankees are invincible.)

On top of all of this you have memorable moments with calls that are etched in the annals of time such as "The Giants win the pennant!", "Go crazy folks", "I can't believe what I just saw!" and of course "AND WE'LL SEE YOU TOMORROW NIGHT!!!"

(NOTE: Isn't it funny how Jack Buck cranked out legendary call after legendary call, but Joe Buck couldn't make a Tip Cup race exciting? I mean, Jack Buck was the Gus Johnson of baseball while Joe is...ugh. Give me some time folks, I'll save you.)

In this installment, I will make my picks for the awards for the 2010 Major League Baseball season and pick the playoffs. So to go where we're going to go, you must look at where you've been.

AMERICAN LEAGUE MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
This one is ridiculously wide open. When you look at it, there are four players who are worthy of winning the AL MVP.

Paul Konerko (CWS - 1B): .312 avg, 39 HR, 111 RBI, .977 OPS
Miguel Cabrera (DET - 1B): .328 avg, 38 HR, 126 RBI, 1.042 OPS
Josh Hamilton (TEX - OF): .352 avg., 32 HR, 100 RBI, 1.044 OPS
Robinson Cano (NYY - 2B): .319 avg, 29 HR, 109 RBI, .914 OPS

The stats are really tight, but here's how I distinguish here.

The White Sox faded at the end of the race, and Konerko's season is built on strictly power numbers. Yes, he carried the team through most of the season, but do you reward him for his team taking a complete nose dive in September?

Josh Hamilton reminds me of the case that Carlos Quentin had in 2008 with the White Sox. Quentin had a .288 avg, 36 HR, 100 RBI, .965 OPS statline, which looks pretty solid. However, Quentin missed the entire final month of the season after breaking his hand in frustration and ultimately lost the award to Dustin Pedroia. However, Quentin had guys like Konerko and Jim Thome in that lineup. The White Sox were stacked. The Rangers had to deal with multiple injuries to Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, and Michael Young, and yet Hamilton kept on cruising until he broke a rib on September 4th.

Miguel Cabrera is a very interesting case. However, the Tigers were 81-81. Some would say that the Tigers had a very young team that fizzled out towards the end. But the Tigers also had quality players such as Justin Verlander, Magglio Ordonez, and Jose Valverde. The Tigers will be back, but this year isn't the year that Cabrera is MVP.

Robinson Cano plays in a loaded lineup. Yes, a majority of the Yankee lineup has struggled, but pitchers still pitch cautiously to Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Mark Teixeira. I love Cano, but not enough to give him MVP.
Crishad's pick: Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers

NATIONAL LEAGUE MVP
Candidates:
Albert Pujols (STL - 1B): .312 avg, 42 HR, 118 RBI, 1.011 OPS
Joey Votto (CIN - 1B): .324, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 1.024 OPS

This one is more conclusive. Albert is a great player, but he's not playing in October. Votto has carried the Reds and made everyone around him better. Write his name down, cause he has the potential to win a couple of these.
Crishad's Pick: Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

AMERICAN LEAGUE CY YOUNG
Candidates:
CC Sabathia (NYY): 21-7, 3.18 ERA, 197 K, 1.19 WHIP
David Price (TB): 19-6, 2.72 ERA, 188 K, 1.19 WHIP
Felix Hernandez (SEA): 13-12 2.27 ERA, 232 K, 1.06 WHIP

Look at King Felix's stats...WOW!!! Note that Felix did that in the American League. I always a run off the ERA when converting to the NL. I don't think Felix would put up a 1.27 ERA, but if you put a better offense around Hernandez, he wins 20-25 games. Yes, I said 25 games.

However, because the Mariners offense was so terrible Hernandez has an awful record. This will kill him because that's how people vote. Not this guy.
Crishad's Pick: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

NATIONAL LEAGUE CY YOUNG

I'm not even going to list candidates on this one. Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44 ERA, 219 K, 1.04 WHIP) has been the best pitcher in the National League. It's not even close.
Crishad's Pick: Roy Halladay

AMERICAN LEAGUE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Austin Jackson (OF, DET): .293 avg, 4 HR, 41 RBI, 27 SB
Danny Valencia (3B, MIN): .311 avg, 7 HR, 40 RBI, .799 OPS
Neftali Feliz (P, TEX): 4-3, 2.73 ERA, 40 SV

Austin Jackson started really well, but tailed off by the end of the season. Meanwhile Danny Valencia only played HALF of the Twins season. Feliz is technically a rookie after making his debut in 2009, but he was thrust into the closers role, so he's my pick.
Crishad's Pick: Feliz

NATIONAL LEAGUE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
Crishad's Pick: Jason Heyward (OF, ATL; .277 avg, 18 HR, 72 RBI)

AMERICAN LEAGUE MANAGER OF THE YEAR:
Ron Gardenhire (MIN)

A lot of people will pick Texas manager Ron Washington for this award, but Gardy lost his closer, his first baseman, and patched together a pitching staff to win his fifth AL Central Championship.

NATIONAL LEAGUE MANAGER OF THE YEAR:
Bobby Cox (ATL)

This is the sentimental pick, but the Braves took all their question marks and turned it into a playoff berth.

OK, and after all of that...my picks for the MLB Postseason.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

ALDS:
Yankees over Twins in 4 games
Rays over Rangers in 4 games

ALCS:
Rays over Yankees in 7 games

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NLDS:
Phillies over Reds in 4 games
Giants over Braves in 5 games

NLCS:
Phillies over Phillies in 5 games

WORLD SERIES:
Phillies over Rays in 6 games

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