The NBA Draft Lottery Is Rigged

On Tuesday night, Minnesota Timberwolves GM David Kahn sat in his seat at Secaucaus, New Jersey and awaited the results of the NBA Draft lottery.

In 13 seasons prior, the Timberwolves had never earned a pick higher than their spot in the final standings or received the #1 pick. But the former was impossible because the Timberwolves had the best chance to get the #1 pick. (Although in $terns system, the Wolves most likely destination was the 4th pick overall.)

As the drama unfolded, the Minnesota Timberwolves, Utah Jazz (from the New Jersey Nets), and the Cleveland Cavaliers (from the Los Angeles Clippers) stood on stage with their representatives awaiting the good (or bad news).

The Utah Jazz had their general manager Kevin O’Connor in attendance. The Wolves had Kahn, and the Cavaliers had….the 14-year-old son of Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert who was battling a rare nerve disorder.

Kahn would lean over to O’Connor and claimed that they had no chance against the kid because there always seems to be some sort of storyline with the team that wins the lottery. Sure enough, the Cavaliers wound up with the number one pick in the 2011 NBA Draft.

Later, Kahn would repeat his comment to the national and local media and was jumped on by every walk of life thinking that Kahn had claimed the lottery was rigged. How could he say such a thing?

Well, I’ll say it. The NBA Draft Lottery is rigged.

The lottery was put in to prevent teams from tanking at the end of the season to try and get the #1 overall pick. Good theory, but the system is severely flawed.

As I mentioned before, the worst team in the NBA has the best chance to get the #1 pick at 25%. However, their most likely destination is pick number four, which has a roughly 35% probability of happening.

Teams also still tank games. Remember a couple years ago when a desperate Timberwolves team, looking to make one last run with Kevin Garnett, sent Mark Madsen out to launch threes in order to get more ping pong balls?

Plus the conspiracy theory was valid from the beginning. Because the winner of the inaugural lottery in 1986 were the New York Knicks, who coincidentally happened to be David Stern’s favorite team growing up. Their prize? Some jobber named Patrick Ewing. Hmm…

I don’t know much about the politics in the past couple of draft lotteries, but here’s what I’m seeing when it comes to the past couple of winners.

2010 – The Washington Wizards won the top pick despite having the fifth worst record. Earlier in the season, $tern’s good friend Abe Polin passed away…who happened to be the owner of the Washington Wizards. The Wizards also just happened to be planning on releasing Gilbert Arenas after his “Hooray for Guns” bit. Also, two bigger markets than Minnesota (New Jersey and Philadelphia) received the 2nd and 3rd picks respectively.

2009 – The Los Angeles Clippers received the #1 pick. Their standing prior to the lottery? Third (17.7%). In a one clear superstar draft, $tern awarded Blake Griffin to one of the biggest media markets in the NBA.

2008 – The Chicago Bulls were awarded the #1 overall pick ahead of the Miami Heat and Timberwolves. The Bulls were 9th in the standings and had a 1.7% chance of winning. Again, major media market and a two superstar draft (Michael Beasley considered to be one at the time) resulting in the Wolves falling just outside of the “money zone.” Added twist: Derrick Rose, the top pick, grew up playing in Chicago…

2007 – The Portland Trailblazers got the #1 overall pick and selected Greg Oden. That may have been chosen at random. However, there were two superstars and the team with the 2nd pick was the Seattle Supersonics. The Sonics were in a process of moving the team to Oklahoma City, so they needed a superstar to help sell basketball in the prarie. Enter Kevin Durant…

2006 – The Toronto Raptors wound up with the #1 pick in a draft where there wasn’t a clear cut superstar. The pick was Andrea Barngnani, who’s an OK player, but he’s not a Durant or Rose. If you want to push it, the lone Canadian team standing gets the #1 pick after the Vancouver Grizzlies moved to Memphis several years prior. Could $tern been trying to build his brand in Canada?

2005 – The Milwaukee Bucks win the lottery. Again, no true superstar, meaning small market team gets the #1 pick to create excitement and hope in the smaller cities who don’t win every year.

2004 – The Orlando Magic get Dwight Howard. Small market team looking for hope now has it. Although there were considered to be a superstar in the draft in Emeka Okefor. Orlando made the right pick here, but still, nobody really knew what to think about Dwight Howard at the time, right?

2003 – The “Miami Heat” draft. Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and LeBron James would all go in the top 5, but it was James, the hometown kid from Ohio, who would try and bring his Cleveland Cavalier franchise back from the dead…

Which brings us full circle back to this years draft. Screw the theory that the Cavs won because the owner’s son was representing him. This goes much deeper. Cleveland was pissed off by the fact LeBron had stabbed them in the back with “The Decision.” Cleveland was livid with the NBA, so to keep another small market quiet, they gave them hope by giving them the #1 pick again showing that “Maybe we can rebuild without LeBron!” Meanwhile, the Wolves fell to #2, where they could take a right-handed version of Michael Beasley.

Think what you want. You can ignore all the facts I’ve just given you. You can ignore the fact that it’s a lottery operated behind closed doors in a secret location. And you can just try and enjoy the games. However, this is the league where a referee was accused and convicted of rigging games. Thing is, all the evidence seems to pile up against Mr. $tern.