Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Playoff Prognostications


It's that time of the year. After the Minnesota Twins defeated the Detroit Tigers in 12 innings last night, the playoff field of baseball is finally set. Hey, on an unrelated note, did you notice that all the MLB Playoff commercials all have the Tigers in there? Weird. They aren't even in the playoffs now. Anyways, this is what will happen in October.

AMERICAN LEAGUE
ALDS
Yankees over Twins in 4 games
I'm going to give the Twins a game here because that's what they usually do. They'll steal one of the games either at Yankee Stadium or the Metrodome and make the series seem closer than it really is. However, the Eastern Sports Propaganda Network would have you believe that this is going to be a rout. As Lee Corso says, not so fast my friend. The Twins have a shot in this series because of several things. First, the Yankees are loaded with players who don't usually produce in October. CC Sabbathia didn't do well with the Indians in 2007 or the Brewers in 2008 (many would contest that with the fact that Sabbathia was on three days rest, but he had been pitching on three days rest for the past month). There's Mark Teixeria who also isn't great in October. Then there's the king, Mr. August, Alex Rodriguez. It's been rumored that A-Rod got girlfriend Kate Hudson pregnant earlier this month. This is his first example of producing in baseball's most crucial month.

The second point is A.J. Burnett's fued with Jorge Posada. Joe Girardi has already given into Burnett and has elected to go with Jose Molina behind the plate for Burnett's starts instead of Posada. Burnett opponent batting average is 60 points lower with Molina behind the plate than it is with Posada. The problem here isn't the pitching, but the offense that the Yankees trade off in this exchange. The Yankees still have 8 other guys hitting in a sandbox in the bronx but this might make a difference.

However, when it's all said and done, you can expect to see CC wolfing a triple cheeseburger in celebration after game 4 of the series.

Angels over Red Sox in 5 games

The Angels have home field advantage here, but that doesn't seem like much in this case. The Sox have crushed the Angels in previous playoff meetings, but the Sox aren't what they used to be. Neither are the Angels. The Angels have transformed into an American League team over the past couple of season, acquiring 4 outfielders that can rake. This will exploit Boston's suspect rotation and the Angels will advance.

ALCS
Angels over Yankees in 6 games

The Angels have a lot of things going for them. Their storyline with Nick Adenhardt, their offense, etc. The Yankees will have the home field advantage, but I really like the Angels pitching. The Angels seem like a team of destiny.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
NLDS
Rockies over Phillies in 5 games
This will be the best series in the first round. Jorge De La Rosa is out for the first round of the playoffs with a groin injury and Colorado's pitching is a little bit suspect. However, the reason I'm picking Colorado is because of the Phillies bullpen. What a difference a year makes. A year ago, Brad Lidge was lights out. This year, the lights are on and the horn is blaring. The Phillies have replaced Lidge with Ryan Madson, who's adaquate, but he's also very erratic in the closer role. This will cost the Phillies at some point in the playoffs. You need to have a guy in the playoffs that can slam the door on the other team (see Mariano River, Huston Street, and Joe Nathan).

Cardinals over Dodgers in 4 games

My apologies to Kyle Mills, but I was very close to calling this series a sweep. Why? Starting pitching. The Cardinals will start Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainright. Btw, they have 34 combined wins between them. Opposing those two in the first two games will be Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw. I like Kershaw a lot, but the Dodgers don't want a Rick Ankiel situation to break out (How ironic?). Kershaw might throw 100 pitches in 4 innings because he's a strikeout pitcher, which stretches out an already fatigued bullpen. Add in Albert Pujols's supporting cast (Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday) compared to Manny Ramirez's (Matt Kemp and Orlando Hudson) and this series looks like a no brainer.

NLCS

Cardinals over Rockies in 4 games

You want a sweep? Here's your sweep. The Cardinals are way too much for the Rox and the Rox can't hit outside of Denver. St. Louis would have the homefield advantage, and if the Dodgers series ends quickly, they could use Wainwright and Carpenter 3 to 4 times.

WORLD SERIES

Cardinals over Angels in 6 games

This would be a very entertaining series, but the Cards win again because of their pitching. I like the Angels a lot, but I don't think they can overcome the one man wrecking crew known as Albert Pujols.

So there you have it, don't put money down on the Cardinals to win the World Series.

No comments:

Post a Comment